Trading Plan 7/1/04

Todays plan was to trade the ISM #, but that was a non
issue. Next event will be the FOMC Minutes, I think
we will get good movement from that. But we will
probably see a tight trending market, waiting for the
job #'s tom. The trend on the pound is still on the
downside. Tomorrow we will have a trend setting event
for the rest of the month.

Todays plan will be to look at my
trends/support/resistance levels on the GBP. We have
resistance @ 1.8185 then 1.8226. Support would be
seen around 1.8100/15. My feeling people will not go
against the dollar till , tomorrow. I cannot see
anyone puting major longs out today. I will await for
the minutes @ 2pm, I think that will be a good trade.
It's little disappointing action after the fed
deceision and the Japans Tankan report. Dont know
why, but I am neutral here till I get a better feel on
what these fx want to do, cause it looks like they
don't either.

I havent recap from yesterday, I will later on. I want to recollect my thoughts. I did well, but got killed in the evening, I want to review my mistakes and clearly write them, so I will never do that again.

Trading Plan 6/30/04

The day of reckoning is here. The big decision is
here. I really do not have a feel on what the dollar
will do once the announcement comes out(if .25% pt is
expected). I will be waiting to here what the fed
will say after the decision. The rumor is that the
fed will get rid of the "measured" statement. If they
keep that word in there I will look to buy GBP.

GBP had a reversal overnight, because of good
#'s(current account and GDP all where GBP positive)
and a weaker Chicago Pur. Mgr. had helped the GBP
rally. I think for the rest of the day we will trend
in a tight range till around 2pm.

I will wait for comments to trade unless, theres an
unexpected decision like .50% or no rate hike. I will
not be looking to make major trades till then. Unless
the currencies hit certain trends or supports. A move
of 1.8200 could be a possibility, but it is unlikely
till after the decision.

Recap 6/28/04

Well Standard Deviation Day worked on the GBP. I was able to make net +20 pips with +32 from yesterday for a total of +52 for my day. I was actually up +80 pips but I made a few bad trades that did not work late in the day. An upbeat is a good day, at one point I was up for the month. I am still down -30 pips. Tomorrow, I will either be up over or down more than 30 pips.

Tomorrow will be a difficult day to trade. I have a feeling that tonight European currencies will continue its weakness. GBP is particularly oversold. I think GBP will break that 1.8045 level. A break of that level you could see the GBp go to 1.7900 level very easily. Everything seems to have turned negative for the GBP, news on Blair, BOE's King made comments, weak UK confidence #'s, with Strong US Confidence #'s are staging a dollar rally on all currencies. If we see continued strength overnight on the dollar, we might get buy the rumor sell the fact type of reaction, once the Fed makes their decision.

I get the feeling that we will have continued dollar strength even after the announcement, for the reasons I stated in my previous posts. Peoples Pychology will be realized that, wow we raised rates, here goes the beginning of a long cycle of hikes. I could be wrong, but we get this type of reaction, we will see a relief rally overnight, but do not forget the dollar will not let up, cause we have the employment #'s coming out on Friday. Most traders will be concerned going against the dollar, cause if we have good jobs #'s, we will be worried that we might raise rates again very quickly, maybe even talk of 50% basis pts next time. It will be most interesting.

Trading Plan 6/29/04

Coming in late fucked me again I missed a full cent
drop on the GBP. I can only wait for the consumer
confidence #'s, but it looks like we are Standard
Deviation on GBP on the down side, look to trade the
#'s then sell any pops, We have very good support
levels @ 1.8105 and 1.8045 so that could be good
levels to buy and make a quick trade, but UK
Confidence #'s where weak and with FOMC a little over
24 hours, I expected further downside(dollar Strength) on all
currencies, till tomorrow.

Recap 6/28/04

Today was one slow day. I came in late again so most of the moves where early in the morning. I did not make a single trade all afternoon. I did not want to make any trades. I was fearful light activity, would make for choppy markets. I did not want to get chopped up. Now if there was a major support/resistance on a FX I would have taken it of course, but there weren't any.

We go to the evening session. Market was really light, but Japan had there emplyment #'s (which where stronger) and the more important Industrail production(which came really weak). I missed out on the Yen and I got chopped out a few times. I missed a good move, but I was really fortunate to participate in the GBP move down. I was able to sell GBP all the way down to 1.8256 from 1.8998. I did not ride that entire move. but I was in an out and except for one trade that I got in at a bad level, I made nice trades.

From making no trades for over 8 hours, I made 9 trades in about hour for a gain of +32 pips. I'll take it on a slow, day of course I could have made more, LOL

P.S For all who read my posts, does anyone know how to paste my trades on to the blog. If anyone can tell me the process I would appreciate it.

Trading Plan 6/28/04

Most of the movement was between 7:30 and 9:00 for the
GBP and most currencies. The news of the early
handover of Iraq, helped the move to take the pound to
1.8343, now we are in a tight range for the market. I
don't see much trading for the afternoon session. We
should get more activity in the Yen in the evening
session, when we get a slew of economic #'s coming
out.


On the GBP I see support around 1.8280. I think we
will be trading in a tight range for today and
probably tomorrow. Wedsenday Thursday and Friday we
will get great moves in all the currencies, The FOMC
meeting then Friday the Employment #'s. This will
make a great week of trading. My sentiment for today
is to buy the pullbacks and sell the resistance
levels, w/ very tight stops. I am more bullish on GBP
for today. I think we will get dollar strength
leading into Wedsenday FOMC from tonight.


ReCap for Friday 6/25/04
I only really traded the GDP #'s I was able to make a few good trades, I was up +36 pips made a couple of more, but hey where small losers, I ended up making +25 pips offer the day on 20 trades which is a lot. I was up for the week, which is always a plus. After being down big -140 pips for 2.5 days, I was able to to end up +20 pips for the week. I learned that if I stick to my plan, I will end up making money. I also learned that even after being down so much, I have the ability to trade out of my losses.

For the month I am only down -80 pips, which is not bad since its my 1st month trading live. I still have 3 days, and with The looming FOMC I can actually see a positive month. We will see