Recap 6/22/04

Yesterday's trading day was a really frustrating for me. I came in late which I always tell myself, In slow days come in earlier you will get better moves, but I didnt. I really did not get hurt I only lost -9 pips, but ahhhhhhhh. I had the trade of the day. I bought 3lots @ 1.8180, right where support was. I was very aggressive I knew it. I felt around 1:30-2:30 there is one quick move. It suddenly went to to 1.8185, Instead of feeling comfortable, I was getting antsy. I decided to close one lot for even. I was still holding the 2 lots, looking closely at the bank feed of spot quotes. All of sudden I see a change in feed indicating 1.8182, I got nervous and sold both lots. 30 seconds after I did that the GBP spiked 14 pips to 1.8199. I almost shot myself. I was in at such a good level and I gave away such a great trade that would have given me over +20 pips. I had conviction to get in, but what happen to the conviction to hold the trade? I cannot panic in and out of positions. It killed me today.

After 5pm I got chopped in GBP, It had some violent swings and I got caught a few times. I lost -32 pips. That hurt me. I saw the feed, but was not willing to react to it. I will never be right all the time, in fact most of my trades will be losers, but the winners should make up for the losers. I went into GBP twice that I should have and it cost me -20 pips. The trade last night was Yen, Yen has been very strong tis week. In fact it has been the only strong FX against the dollar.

Going forward, I still see further European currency weakness at least till June 30th. You will get buy the rumor, sell the fact trading. However, I am not certain that will happen so fast. Even though its a weak away from the meeting. I think you will get continued dollar strength for the short term, simply most people will realize after the fact, that the Fed has started its move to higher interest rates. We will see.