Trading Plan 7/1/04

Todays plan was to trade the ISM #, but that was a non
issue. Next event will be the FOMC Minutes, I think
we will get good movement from that. But we will
probably see a tight trending market, waiting for the
job #'s tom. The trend on the pound is still on the
downside. Tomorrow we will have a trend setting event
for the rest of the month.

Todays plan will be to look at my
trends/support/resistance levels on the GBP. We have
resistance @ 1.8185 then 1.8226. Support would be
seen around 1.8100/15. My feeling people will not go
against the dollar till , tomorrow. I cannot see
anyone puting major longs out today. I will await for
the minutes @ 2pm, I think that will be a good trade.
It's little disappointing action after the fed
deceision and the Japans Tankan report. Dont know
why, but I am neutral here till I get a better feel on
what these fx want to do, cause it looks like they
don't either.

I havent recap from yesterday, I will later on. I want to recollect my thoughts. I did well, but got killed in the evening, I want to review my mistakes and clearly write them, so I will never do that again.

Trading Plan 6/30/04

The day of reckoning is here. The big decision is
here. I really do not have a feel on what the dollar
will do once the announcement comes out(if .25% pt is
expected). I will be waiting to here what the fed
will say after the decision. The rumor is that the
fed will get rid of the "measured" statement. If they
keep that word in there I will look to buy GBP.

GBP had a reversal overnight, because of good
#'s(current account and GDP all where GBP positive)
and a weaker Chicago Pur. Mgr. had helped the GBP
rally. I think for the rest of the day we will trend
in a tight range till around 2pm.

I will wait for comments to trade unless, theres an
unexpected decision like .50% or no rate hike. I will
not be looking to make major trades till then. Unless
the currencies hit certain trends or supports. A move
of 1.8200 could be a possibility, but it is unlikely
till after the decision.

Recap 6/28/04

Well Standard Deviation Day worked on the GBP. I was able to make net +20 pips with +32 from yesterday for a total of +52 for my day. I was actually up +80 pips but I made a few bad trades that did not work late in the day. An upbeat is a good day, at one point I was up for the month. I am still down -30 pips. Tomorrow, I will either be up over or down more than 30 pips.

Tomorrow will be a difficult day to trade. I have a feeling that tonight European currencies will continue its weakness. GBP is particularly oversold. I think GBP will break that 1.8045 level. A break of that level you could see the GBp go to 1.7900 level very easily. Everything seems to have turned negative for the GBP, news on Blair, BOE's King made comments, weak UK confidence #'s, with Strong US Confidence #'s are staging a dollar rally on all currencies. If we see continued strength overnight on the dollar, we might get buy the rumor sell the fact type of reaction, once the Fed makes their decision.

I get the feeling that we will have continued dollar strength even after the announcement, for the reasons I stated in my previous posts. Peoples Pychology will be realized that, wow we raised rates, here goes the beginning of a long cycle of hikes. I could be wrong, but we get this type of reaction, we will see a relief rally overnight, but do not forget the dollar will not let up, cause we have the employment #'s coming out on Friday. Most traders will be concerned going against the dollar, cause if we have good jobs #'s, we will be worried that we might raise rates again very quickly, maybe even talk of 50% basis pts next time. It will be most interesting.

Trading Plan 6/29/04

Coming in late fucked me again I missed a full cent
drop on the GBP. I can only wait for the consumer
confidence #'s, but it looks like we are Standard
Deviation on GBP on the down side, look to trade the
#'s then sell any pops, We have very good support
levels @ 1.8105 and 1.8045 so that could be good
levels to buy and make a quick trade, but UK
Confidence #'s where weak and with FOMC a little over
24 hours, I expected further downside(dollar Strength) on all
currencies, till tomorrow.

Recap 6/28/04

Today was one slow day. I came in late again so most of the moves where early in the morning. I did not make a single trade all afternoon. I did not want to make any trades. I was fearful light activity, would make for choppy markets. I did not want to get chopped up. Now if there was a major support/resistance on a FX I would have taken it of course, but there weren't any.

We go to the evening session. Market was really light, but Japan had there emplyment #'s (which where stronger) and the more important Industrail production(which came really weak). I missed out on the Yen and I got chopped out a few times. I missed a good move, but I was really fortunate to participate in the GBP move down. I was able to sell GBP all the way down to 1.8256 from 1.8998. I did not ride that entire move. but I was in an out and except for one trade that I got in at a bad level, I made nice trades.

From making no trades for over 8 hours, I made 9 trades in about hour for a gain of +32 pips. I'll take it on a slow, day of course I could have made more, LOL

P.S For all who read my posts, does anyone know how to paste my trades on to the blog. If anyone can tell me the process I would appreciate it.

Trading Plan 6/28/04

Most of the movement was between 7:30 and 9:00 for the
GBP and most currencies. The news of the early
handover of Iraq, helped the move to take the pound to
1.8343, now we are in a tight range for the market. I
don't see much trading for the afternoon session. We
should get more activity in the Yen in the evening
session, when we get a slew of economic #'s coming
out.


On the GBP I see support around 1.8280. I think we
will be trading in a tight range for today and
probably tomorrow. Wedsenday Thursday and Friday we
will get great moves in all the currencies, The FOMC
meeting then Friday the Employment #'s. This will
make a great week of trading. My sentiment for today
is to buy the pullbacks and sell the resistance
levels, w/ very tight stops. I am more bullish on GBP
for today. I think we will get dollar strength
leading into Wedsenday FOMC from tonight.


ReCap for Friday 6/25/04
I only really traded the GDP #'s I was able to make a few good trades, I was up +36 pips made a couple of more, but hey where small losers, I ended up making +25 pips offer the day on 20 trades which is a lot. I was up for the week, which is always a plus. After being down big -140 pips for 2.5 days, I was able to to end up +20 pips for the week. I learned that if I stick to my plan, I will end up making money. I also learned that even after being down so much, I have the ability to trade out of my losses.

For the month I am only down -80 pips, which is not bad since its my 1st month trading live. I still have 3 days, and with The looming FOMC I can actually see a positive month. We will see

Recap Trading 6/24/04

Last night I had my best day ever as a FX trader. I made +138 pips. This includes +88 pips from Wedsenday night plus another 50 for Thursday afternoon. I cannot be disappointed with making so much, but I can't keep forgetting a few that got away that would have given me a great day. A good trader will learn from his mistakes, I am planning on doing that. I was really disgusted with profit left on the table. This week has been tough with very little volatility. So when I finally get a great trading day I really want to maximize the profits. Live and learn.

Another thing I learned, I feel that added to my indecisiveness was I was afraid to trade to give away my profits. I was up +118 pips at one point, so I was realigned to give back anything. I was in a zone, and once I was about to make a trade, I pulled back, and boom I would have made another good trade. That really pissed me off and I needed some time to refocus, it pissed me off because I had trendline confirmation. When you are in the zone, do not try to overanalyze if you are up big. I think there two things, I will be doing is set a mental stop on how many losses I will take and after 3 losing trades take a timeout. Reason for this, I am no longer in any trading zone and I never never want to give back a good day.

Trading Plan 6/25/04

Only looking to trade GBP today. We had weak GDP #'s
but a stronger Deflator. Was able to profit from GBP
going up. I would still be buyer once the Michigan
Confidence # is out. My bias for GBP/Euro strength is
I feel that traders might go long since its less than
6 days away from handing over of Iraq. People might
not want to be long Dollar into the weekend, fearful
of world events and that deadline looming. On the
technical I know we are in a midterm downtrend and
key resistance points failed. I will be very tight
with my longs and based on the 10am #'s, I will have
the conviction to go long. I might, might change my
plan and go short. I will not be stubborn in my plan,
today I will be flexible.

GBP:
Support: 1.8190 / 1.8173
Resistance 1.8260/ 1.8290

Recap Trading 6/23/04

This morning and early afternoon it was absolutely a horrible trading day. My plan was to buy GBP. I missed 2 good trades, then I went into another trade, 1.8170, but I got out quickly but some damage was done regardless. I took another stab @ 1.8165 level, that one did not work. I have room to do one more trade before I would get limit down shutdown(its 90 pips). Cause I was down -32 pips from the previous night, I had only 60 pips to work with. I got limit down, my strategy was flawed, but I was to stubborn to realize, slow market, very little activity and the morning support trendline. All that let me to a limit down day.

The afternoon session started where Its rollover Wedsenday(if anyone wants to know what that is I can explain later). I went in short GBP/JPY @ 197.07 and one lot of GBP @ 1.8161 and then 1.8170. GBP/JPY is just an animal, I went in too quickly and it spiked all the way to 197.38. You don't know how nervous I was, GBP/JPY has a 10 pip spread which very large. You put in an order your down already -10 pips. Before I blinked I was down -40 pips, I held to my conviction and it went down, I ended up making +25 pips, I missed at least another 20-40 pips, but I was happy taking 25. The GBP finally collapsed, after 8pm, I was able to get in and out all the way down to 1.8110. I was sooooo happy. From being down 90 I was down only 2 pips at the end of my trading day. I will take that any day.

Trading Plan 6/24/04

Well the weaker than expected Durable good #'s really
helped a depressed GBP/Euro that has been weak all
week. The GBP moved over 100pips from Economic #'s.
Right now the GBP is trading @ 1.8200. I get the
feeling that this GBP might be in a trading range the
rest of the day. I do not have a strong conviction of
selling or buying, but a few factors have me leaning
towards GBP strength. The terro attacks in Istanbul,
Gold being up strong and GBP being really depressed
make me think we might get another leg up. What might
hold the GBP or go lower we have tomorrow's GDP. With
no economic #'s coming out tonight. People will focus
on the US GDP, also we are getting closer FOMC.

Todays trading I will just be looking to see if
trendlines hold or break to decide my direction. If
you look at the hourly chart GBP broke it trendline
resistance and is trying to confirm the break.

Recap 6/22/04

Yesterday's trading day was a really frustrating for me. I came in late which I always tell myself, In slow days come in earlier you will get better moves, but I didnt. I really did not get hurt I only lost -9 pips, but ahhhhhhhh. I had the trade of the day. I bought 3lots @ 1.8180, right where support was. I was very aggressive I knew it. I felt around 1:30-2:30 there is one quick move. It suddenly went to to 1.8185, Instead of feeling comfortable, I was getting antsy. I decided to close one lot for even. I was still holding the 2 lots, looking closely at the bank feed of spot quotes. All of sudden I see a change in feed indicating 1.8182, I got nervous and sold both lots. 30 seconds after I did that the GBP spiked 14 pips to 1.8199. I almost shot myself. I was in at such a good level and I gave away such a great trade that would have given me over +20 pips. I had conviction to get in, but what happen to the conviction to hold the trade? I cannot panic in and out of positions. It killed me today.

After 5pm I got chopped in GBP, It had some violent swings and I got caught a few times. I lost -32 pips. That hurt me. I saw the feed, but was not willing to react to it. I will never be right all the time, in fact most of my trades will be losers, but the winners should make up for the losers. I went into GBP twice that I should have and it cost me -20 pips. The trade last night was Yen, Yen has been very strong tis week. In fact it has been the only strong FX against the dollar.

Going forward, I still see further European currency weakness at least till June 30th. You will get buy the rumor, sell the fact trading. However, I am not certain that will happen so fast. Even though its a weak away from the meeting. I think you will get continued dollar strength for the short term, simply most people will realize after the fact, that the Fed has started its move to higher interest rates. We will see.

Trading Plan 6/23/04

Overnight again we had our fireworks, I think today
we might have a bit more action. MPC minutes came out
and they where surprisingly hawkish. 9-0 vote was
very strong and not expected from the BOE. However
that did not help bolster the GBP. Following comments
seemed more dovish. We saw continues weakness. There
where rumors of an Asian Central Bank selling GBP
which helped towards its weakness.

I think we will get a reversal on GBP for today. I
still believe that GBP will trade weaker till next
week, once our FOMC is complete. I would be looking
to be a buyer. Just missed a good level @ 1.8166.
You could see the GBP rally a little today. Support
is around 1.8140 and 1.8100 and resistance seems to be
around 1.8200 then 1.8225.

Today, plan is to really be quick with losses. Will
be looking to sell GBP after 5pm. I would like to
sell also GBP/JPY after the 5pm. Try to make
10-30pips on it. It depends on how the markets move
this morning.

Trading Plan 6/22/04

We are having another ugly quiet trading day. The
moves again happened overnight. GBP dropped over a
full cent and is currently lulled in a tight trading
range from 9am. I do not for see any fireworks in
afternoon or even the Japan session. We will get good
volatility in the European session. Germany & Frances
CPI #'s are coming out and the BOE minutes will be out
4:30am(eastern)tomorrow. This will give us a very
good in-site in how hawkish the BOE will be for the
coming months.

Today, just looking to make 5-10 pips and not to be
greedy. 10pips in this muddle is golden. Focus will
be GBP. Will draw my trends-lines and trade of them.
There really isn't any major support/resistance where
the GBP is trading.

GBP:
Resistance 1.8255
Support 1.8180 / 1.8045

Trading Recap 6/21/04

Today was one very quiet day. I waited for the price to hit my trendlines and sold those levels that I was looking for. Unfortunately, they all drifted higher and went against me. I attempted to get out with small losses and get back in at higher levels, but it continued trending higher.(I was looking to sell Euro and GBP, I got in GBP at 3 different levels one @ 1.8310, then 1.8313 and one final time @ 1.8314, all trades in 2 mini lots. Biggest loser was -12 pips.)

One thing I learned, and it was a good thing it was a slow market. Once you have your channels/Trends drawn and the price breaks above/below them. You gotta keep very tight stops. Redraw your lines and confirm your trends. You wanna double check every thing. You do not want to be incorrect, you will feel like a total jackass and more importantly it can cost you a lot of money. In a slow market, you have time to 2x check and keep tight stops. In a fast market its a whole different animal.

I was down -41pips in 7 trades. I had only one double digit losers(-12), but no winners. Slow markets are tough, 5-10pip profit is awesome, but here is the dilemma I have. There will be a time in a slow market you can have a 20 to 30+++ pip move. What can you do to make sure you don't miss that move. Put multi lots out. In a slow market you will have a good opportunity to get out. As long as you don't develop A Deer In Headline Syndrome. Take a profit in one lot of 10 pips then try to ride out your other lots, till they hit the levels you hoped for. Your other open lots, make sure they do not become losers, just have stops that will give break-even or small profits.



On Friday I never posted. I ended up -21 pips from 3 trades. I had the potential to make good money on one trade. I could have made +20pips, but ended up w/+8. That pissed me off, cause I got a little greedy, and made me want to get back early than I should have and it cost me on 2 lots.

Trading Plan 6/21/04

Today's name of the game is slow market. I don't
expect to see much volatility in todays market. We
have dollar strength overnight and this morning. I do
not for see that reversing. For the most part the
markets will be in a good trading range for the next
week and a half, awaiting the decision by the FOMC.

I do not for see any major volatility, unless we have
major world events. There are some important #'s out
of the EuroZone w/ Germany and Tietary #'s from Japan.
The most important #'s form England is the release of
the MPC Minutes. Giving the markets further insight
on what should we expect from the BOE.

I would be looking for today to be a seller of GBP and
Euro. Will keep a close eye on Yen this week. Might
be the trade currency of the week. Yen has been the
strongest performer from last week against the dollar.

Will be looking to sell the pops. Hourly charts seem
to be a little on the downside. a 10 - 15 pip will be
a great trade for this week. Look to close winners
quickly.

GBP:
Resistance: 1.8320
Support: 1.8255 / 1.8230

Euro:
Resistance: 1.2120 / 1.2170
Support: 1.2075 / 1.2040

Yen:
Resistance: 108.90 / 109.25
Support: 107.80 / 107.50

Combined account Statement 6/14 to 6/18

Combined account Statement

Trading Recap 6/17

Had one of my better day, I was up +45 pips. I was right about the GBP, once it broke its trendline, from the late night hours, it was a drift for most of the day. The good news was that it went below the 1.8300 level and was able to do a big figure trade. Should have held it cause it did very well. I was able to make good money on selling and buying. I wished more days can be like this.

I felt that if the trendline broke, we would have seen the GBp gone down to the 1.8300 level.

Trading Plan 6/18/04

Again looking at the GBP. We had another overnight
reversal on the upside. I would be looking to be
again a buyer of GBP. I would like to see a test of
1.8445. A clear break of that would be bullish. I
have to keep in mind that todays action could be
similiar to yesterday. We had a failed attempt to
break 1.8400 we might be in a muddle trading session
for a friday.

GBP:
Support: 1.8355 / 1.8310
Resisitance: 1.8400 / 1.8445